My crazy 2026 prediction (it involves Linux)

I'm not saying 2026 will be "the year of Linux on the desktop," but it will be the year that people like me pull the trigger on a Linux installation on their gaming PC.

I just think there's been a years-long bubbling up of frustration among gamers about how terrible Windows is and how misaligned Microsoft seems to be with their needs. Today there are options, and you could install basically any Linux distro and cobble together a gaming setup that works reasonably well, but it's more work and clunkiness than most people are willing to deal with. All these people need is an easy-to-use, obvious place to go.

Meanwhile, Valve has put in tons of work over the last 10 years making Windows games run pretty great on Linux, and is releasing the Steam Machine, their desktop/console device that will run a flavor of Linux. Based on my experience with the Steam Deck, it should be pretty great.

My prediction is there will be a slightly modified version of that Linux distro made available for general PCs, which will be easy to install and go some level of viral in 2026. And by viral, I mean enough people will do it that The Verge will write an article about how gamers are flocking to this Windows alternative.

I think the odds of this happening increase significantly if we can get NVIDIA drivers working much better than they do now. I haven't tried Linux on my Intel/NVIDIA system, but my understanding is that AMD GPUs work better than NVIDIA ones in the Linux distros that are out now. But NVIDIA has a much bigger portion of the gaming market, so, if we can get better support for ray tracing and DLSS in Linux, that's going to make this a more compelling thing for PC gamers.