How many MacBook Neo buyers would have bought an Air before?

Tim Culpan: Apple Doubles MacBook Neo Production, Orders Fresh Batch of Chips

As a result, it’s now asking suppliers to prepare capacity for 10 million units of the debut version of the Neo, up from an initial estimate of 5 million to 6 million, my sources tell me. Delivery times for the laptop have ballooned to as much as four weeks as Taiwan’s Quanta and Foxconn rush to fill orders from factories in Vietnam and China.

We'll never get it but I'd love to have a peek behind the curtain to see what the MacBook Neo does to unit sales of the MacBook Air and MacBook Pro. IDC reported that Apple sold 25 million Macs total in 2025, so if Culpan's reporting is accurate, Apple looking to move 10 million Neos in a year is quite notable. What percentage of those 10 million buyers are new to the Mac versus how many would have bought an Air (or even a Pro) previously?

My suspicion is that the majority of those buyers are going to be new to the Mac. However at least some percentage are going to be people who would have bought an Air previously because they just wanted a Mac and now that there's a cheaper option they just found a way to save $500. I know it's anecdotal, but I still think about my recent flight where I walked past first class and there were 2 Neos out and in use among people who paid $2,000+ for their tickets.