My folding iPhone predictions

I've been covering Apple for 16 years (using Apple stuff for 31 years), and not to toot my own horn, but I think I have a pretty good success record predicting the success of their entries into new hardware categories. I'm not always right, but I'm definitely right more often than I'm wrong. I was extremely bullish on smartwatches, and the Apple Watch in particular, and that's gone on to be an enormous success. I was extremely bearish on the Vision Pro, and we know how that played out so far. I was extremely mixed on the HomePod, and I don't know how else to describe the HomePod since then other than as a product that is extremely mixed.

As I write this, we're just two days away from Apple likely showing off another new hardware category, a folding smartphone. I figured, why not give it another go and officially lay down some predictions for how this product will go, not only this year but over the next few years?

How the folding iPhone will sell

An interesting split I've seen in the Apple community over the last year is in how people who were vehemently anti-folding-phone have shifted. When Apple wasn't making one, most people in the community would say that's because folding phones were a bad idea, the technology wasn't there, and they were way too expensive to be mainstream consumer products.

However, as it's become clear this is really happening, some people have done the thing I've talked about before, where everything Apple doesn't do is bad, and then once there are rumors that Apple is doing exactly that thing, they mentally move themselves from "they shouldn't do it" to “it'll be okay” to “actually, I'm super excited for this thing.” Meanwhile, others are sticking to their guns. I've seen plenty of people who think the folding iPhone will be a flop, that the hardware will literally fail (as in the screen will fail) within a year or two, and that Apple will discontinue it within two years of its launch.

For my part, my prediction is basically that through 2026, both sides of this debate will have data that lets them win stupid social media spats.

On the one hand, I do think the phone will be very desirable, and that there are people who will very much enjoy having this device in their life. My evidence for this is that I've been using the Samsung Galaxy Fold8 for the past month, and it's incredibly good. I'm sometimes still annoyed by the small outer screen, but I've largely gotten used to it. When you need something more like an iPad and you unfold the phone, suddenly you have an iPad mini-sized device in your hands. It's awesome.

I spend a couple of weeks every year switching to an Android phone as my main phone, and it's been pretty tough over the last 5 years or so. The software library just isn't for me, and I find it hard to stick with it for very long because I feel like I'm just using apps that aren't nearly as good as what I have on my iPhone. A folding Android phone doesn't really help with what apps are available, but it does make it especially nice to have an Android tablet on demand and to do things like play games, watch videos, or use productivity apps with more screen density and tables and that sort of thing. For me personally, a device that's very similar to this but runs iOS and has all the apps I love would be killer.

At the same time, I fully expect this to be the worst, or maybe second-worst-selling iPhone in the iPhone 18 generation of devices. I think this for a couple of reasons.

First, this device will not be able to be manufactured at the scale of other iPhones. Reports differ on exactly how severe the production challenges are, but whichever report is most accurate, it certainly seems like Apple can't crank these out like iPhone 18 Pros. This will mean that even if Apple sells every single one of them that it makes, and based on my last point, I do think there's a chance that will happen, it still won't be enough to make it one of the top phones in the lineup.

Second, despite my excitement about the experience of using a device like this, it won't be universal. For now, at least, this will be a niche device, not just necessarily because of manufacturing limits, but because a lot of people either don't want this or don't know if they want it yet. I also think that the rectangle that sits in your pocket is a pretty perfect size and experience. It's very reasonable that a lot of people won't feel that having a smaller phone that they can turn into a tablet is actually better than the greatest product form factor created in the last 100 years.

Third, there's the price. Nobody knows exactly what this thing is going to cost. I've seen leaked listings that suggest it could be around $1,600, while others are projecting anything from $2,000 to $3,000. My bullishness on this device changes quite a bit depending on where the actual thing falls in that price range. If it's $1,600, I think it's going to be sold out for months as they sell every single one they can manufacture. If it's $3,000, I think it's an absolute nonstarter.

So, yeah, I do think that, especially this year, unit sales will far lag behind the 18 Pro models, the normal iPhone 18, and probably the Air 2 and 18e. I think they will lag next year as well for similar reasons. I don't know if this will ever become the most popular iPhone, but I do not think it will fail, and I think it will sell more units every year for it's first few years on the market (especially if they can get the price down over that time as well).

My evidence for this is the increasing market share folding phones have in the Android world, as well as my personal experience using something very similar to what Apple is about to announce and having my own aha moment, where it really clicked with me.

On the cancellation point some are making, I'll remind you that the Vision Pro is famously a failure in the consumer market so far, and Apple hasn't discontinued it. I think those predicting that the fold will be discontinued within two years are wish-casting.

Another model

I've talked about this before as well, but I'll throw it here to document it plainly: I think there will be a larger version of this folding phone in the next year or two. I think the short outer screen is going to be a point of friction for people, and in a year or two Apple will release one with a larger screen that is more similar to its standard iPhone when folded in half.

Price

I'm just going to put my flag in the ground and say this will cost $1,999.

As I said earlier, there are rumors all over the place about what the cost will be, and I do not expect it to be cheap. However, I do think it's worth noting that Apple is not the first to this game. Samsung sells comparable devices at $1,899 and $1,999.

Part of me wonders how much of this is Apple fans not being aware of the norms in the rest of the market, such as when they acted like 120Hz and always-on displays were hyper-premium screen technologies when they had been standard fare for several years on Android devices of almost all price points.

Historically, Apple is also one who can surprise us. We all assumed the iPad would debut at $999, so it was a famously killer moment when they revealed the $499 price point. Meanwhile, we were mentally prepared for $2,00-2,500 VR headset, and then Apple dropped the $3,500 bomb when they debuted the Vision Pro.

I'm going with $1,999 because I think it's competitive in the market, and psychologically it will feel very good for Apple to be able to say this device starts at under $2,000, even if just barely. I guess I'm expecting something closer to the iPad moment than the Vision Pro moment. And hey, if there's one of those two product lines to emulate, I'd emulate the iPad. 😅

The name

Finally, there's the name. Everyone seems to think it's going to be the iPhone Ultra, and I guess if I were putting money down, that's what I'd bet on as well.

But I just don't like it. I don't like it because it's not "ultra" in many ways, and I don't like it because what do you call the bigger version of it in a year or two? The Ultra Max? Maybe you do…

I personally think it should be called the iPhone Folio. I think there's a 99% chance I'm wrong, but hey, won't it be amazing if I'm right?