Gary Marcus: Hot Take: GPT 4.5 Is a Nothing Burger

Half a trillion dollars later, there is still no viable business model, profits are modest at best for everyone except Nvidia and some consulting forms, there’s still basically no moat, and still no GPT-5. Any reasonable person with a scientific mind would say, “scaling was a hypothesis, we invested roughly 2x the Apollo Project in inflation-adjusted dollars in it, and we still don’t have that much to show for it.”

An astronomical investment that led to a new version of an LLM that some people say might have a slightly different “vibe” than the model that came before it. I’m waiting to be proved wrong, but it really seems like we’re hitting a ceiling in “smarts’ and future innovations are going to come more from how we implement those smarts into software than anything else.