Switch 2 sales estimates drop, and why I think console gaming is currently in decline
Jess Weatherbed: Nintendo cuts Switch 2 production amid weakening console sales
Nintendo will produce fewer Switch 2 units than it previously projected in response to weakening demand for the console in the US, Bloomberg reports. Four million units of Nintendo’s flagship device are expected to be made this quarter instead of the six million it had originally planned, according to unnamed sources cited by the publication, with the reduced output set to continue in April.
It's been interesting to see how game console sales have gone since 2020 and the release of the PS5 and Xbox Series consoles. It seems that we're in an era where initial sales are outstanding – constantly setting records for most units sold over the first few months. However, then there's a drop off and ongoing sales lag behind what previous console generations achieved.
If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say that what's happening here is that consoles are getting more niche, and most consumers are satisfied enough with their previous consoles so their hunger to move to the latest tech is dampened. Eventually a lot of them will get there, but the push just isn't there, so they put off a purchase for a few years. Meanwhile, as sad as it is to say, I think people are spending more of their gaming time playing mindless gambling…ahem…mobile games on their phone.
Another aspect I think about here is the PC-ification of high end gaming. PC gaming is continually on the rise, with upwards of 3x the number of active users on Steam alone than all the consoles combined. I was a pure console gamer until 2020, then I was a hybrid gamer for a while, but now I'm all in on PC with the single exception of Nintendo first-party games. This is all while, due to the state of the world, console prices have risen to the point where they feel less like a deal compared to PCs. The PS5 Pro is $750, a normal PS5 is $550, the Xbox Series X is $600, and a Switch 2 is $450. I know we're going quite a long ways, but here's a Best Buy ad from 2003 showing the PS2 and Xbox at $179, which works out to about $315 in today's dollars. Here's one from 2001 showing the Nintendo 64 for $99. Even adjusted for inflation, these were far closer to impulse purchases than today's consoles. Living in an uncertain economy, I get why many people aren't prepared to spend this much on a new console. The irony is that due to the state of things, waiting to buy a console today also means spending more money. It used to be that consoles got cheaper over the years they were on the market, or the companies would make new revisions that shot costs down sharply. That's the case today, where both Sony and Microsoft have raised the price of their consoles since their 2020 launches, and the hardware revisions have been to create even more expensive options.
I could also rail against the live service game model, which creates a winner-take-all environment where you're either the biggest game in the world or you fail, and how this is a worse model for the industry as a whole than putting out a constant stream of good games that people enjoy for a while and then move onto something else. Or how about the fact that AAA game developers seem to think that when they release a successful game, what gamers want is a sequel that takes so long to build that the next game doesn't come out for another decade? But I'll stop now because I'm liable to wind myself up too much here.
Long story short, I love gaming, and I want the consoles to be an accessible entry point for all people to enjoy the medium I love, but it's in a challenging spot right now.