The elusive 5th type of new iPhone buyer

Over 1 billion people around the world use an iPhone, but despite that enormous user base, it seems like if we simplify things down to general groups, there are four types of new iPhone buyers.

1. People who just want the iPhone.
2. People who just want the best iPhone.
3. People who want the biggest, baddest iPhone money can buy.
4. People who want a more affordable iPhone.

The first group is served by the regular iPhone. The second group will upgrade to the iPhone Pro. The 3rd group can drop an enormous amount of cash on the Pro Max. And those who want a cheaper phone, but still new in-box, can choose between the iPhone 16E and last year's iPhone for a little cheaper. Yet, since 2020's iPhone 12 lineup, there has been one other iPhone in the lineup that can't seem to get any love.

The iPhone mini was created to serve people who wanted a smaller iPhone, but that only lasted two years before being unceremoniously canceled. It was replaced by the iPhone Plus, which lived for three years, and aimed to satisfy the needs of people who just wanted a normal iPhone, but with a bigger screen. And now we're just a month into the iPhone Air, which aims to serve those who want the thinnest phone possible, features be damned. The jury's still out of this one, and while early reports indicate it's selling better than the Plus did, we also have reports that Apple has reduced their forecasts for this device (while the rest of the 17 lineup is over performing expectations).

If I could Monday morning quarterback this, I have a few ideas why these phones missed the mark.

• The iPhone mini was made for people who wanted a very small phone, but I think when it came time to open the wallet, a lot of people balked at the battery life and how much they actually wanted that smaller screen compared to the slightly larger options.
• The iPhone Plus feels like a victim of pricing segmentation. There may be people who would want a normal iPhone with a bigger screen, but the larger iPhone pricing structure made it a tough sell; if you're going to spend about $1,000 for a phone, you may as well get the Pro with more features.
• The jury's still out on the iPhone Air, but I do think it faces an even more challenges as those other phones by offering fewer features with a higher price tag. I'm not saying it's going to fail, I'm just saying it's cued up to have a tough time. Reports that Samsung is already benching their ultra-thin phone next year doesn’t exactly lead me to think this is a phone type people were clamoring for.

So will the iPhone Air break the curse? I don't know, and I think it's gonna be a little while until anyone can answer that question with confidence. A few years ago, it made all the sense in the world that a larger regular iPhone would sell like gangbusters, but here we are.