Apple will kill iPadOS
How's this for a hot take to start the weekend: I think Apple is going to discontinue iPadOS. I know, I know, it's a big swing, but put the pitchforks away and hear me out. iPadOS, as it exists now, is being stretched too thin. The idea of having one operating system, with the same features, that spans from a small, 8" tablet up through a 13" laptop-style slab that also connects to a 32" monitor is fundamentally problematic.
This doesn't even take into account that we're likely getting an iPhone that folds out to an 8" tablet soon. What's that software going to look like? What about when the inevitable larger folding iPhone comes and it has a 10" screen?
We're all familiar with the complaints from users on both ends of the iPad spectrum. iPad Pro users love the hardware but are perpetually frustrated by limitations in the software. Meanwhile, users of the smaller and lower-end iPads are frustrated with the added desktop-style features they're getting that complicate their experience. And then there are iPad users who just feel like Apple is abandoning what made them fall in love with the iPad in the first place.
So here's the prediction: Apple will discontinue iPadOS. The regular iPad, iPad mini, and iPad Air will continue to exist, but they will run iOS. These iPads will not have the Mac-style window management they have today, but they will maintain Split View and (probably) Stage Manager. Of course, the iPhone will continue to run iOS, and the iPhone Fold will adopt a more iPad-style layout when the 8" inner screen is exposed.
That leaves the iPad Pro, which I believe will begin shipping with macOS. No, not some fork of macOS or "macOS lite," the real deal. This will live alongside the other Macs in the lineup, and it will be the tablet-style Mac while Apple will keep the clamshell laptop and desktop machines in the lineup. The strongly rumored touch-enabled MacBook Pros on the horizon will come with a new build of macOS that fully supports touch, opening the door to a tablet-style Mac, and why mess with perfection? Put macOS on the iPad Pro and instantly have the best convertible computer on the planet.
And for those who haven't read all of my work (reasonable, tbh), I really have to reiterate what I've said before, which is that macOS UI elements are not as small as you think, and in most cases, are literally exactly the same as those on the iPad. To illustrate my point, here's a comparison of toolbar buttons used all across the OS at the default UI zoom on a 14" MacBook Pro and an 11" iPad Pro. My god, the size difference, touch would never work there! It's not like SwiftUI builds literally the same UI for basically everything between iPadOS and macOS builds already. 😉
And let's look at the iPadOS updates in recent years. I think it's fair to say that 90% of the big things people got really excited about were features that made the iPad more like the Mac. Even things that they did in a special iPad-centric way (window management, mouse support, etc.) were soon redone in a way that made them more carbon copies of the Mac and most people celebrated those changes.
And hey, this would let Apple stay true to their word. Are they merging iPadOS and macOS? No. They're just getting rid of iPadOS.
I recognize this is a big swing, and I don't think it's happening this year. It may not happen next year either, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense to me. The impending introduction of an iPhone that turns into a tablet-sized device itself, really just makes me wonder what the hell we're doing here. What the right OS for an 8" tablet? Apple will be selling two devices like that and as it stands now, the answer is different for each one. That's silly.
I think making a more clear software split in the lineup makes a ton of sense. Let the more casual iPads (and the iPhones that will soon be the size of iPads) run a clean, but powerful touch-centric OS. Then let the Mac be what it always has been, the best platform for giving Apple customers tons of options.
