What's next for the iPhone Air?

The iPhone Air is a really interesting device, isn't it? It's the first time I can think of where you paid more to get less in an iPhone. The iPhone Air costs a not-insignificant $200 (or 25%) more than the iPhone 17, and in order to achieve its incredibly thin design, it sacrifices two main features: battery life and cameras. Notably, these are the two features that consumers consistently name as the top things they look for when upgrading their phone (well, besides keeping the same OS they're used to). We always want more battery life, and we always want better photos.

This isn't any new insight after a year of seeing sales info, and I predicted that this would be a tough trade-off for a lot of people to make immediately after seeing the Air revealed last September. I expected it to be the worst-selling of the four iPhones that came out at the end of the year. All the indications we have from outside Apple are that this has indeed come to pass, but I don't think that means the iPhone Air is a failure.

I think the iPhone Air is taking the role that the MacBook Air took many years ago. When the MacBook Air debuted, it came out in a MacBook lineup that had the normal MacBook and the MacBook Pro. The Air was worse than the MacBook in almost every way, and yes, it cost more to boot.

For a time, Apple had the MacBook, the MacBook Air, and the MacBook Pro. But after a few years, the technology got to a point where Apple could fit a very good consumer laptop into the MacBook Air wedge, and they discontinued the MacBook. The laptop line became the MacBook Air and the MacBook Pro, and that's the lineup we've had for an incredibly long time, up until and including today.

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect this same future for the iPhone lineup. In fact, at the start of 2025, I predicted that the thin iPhone we knew was likely coming out at the end of the year was actually not another phone in the lineup, it was just the new iPhone 17. Obviously, I got that prediction wrong, but I think it's one of those predictions that you get wrong on timing, not on the final state.

There's a new rumor out today that suggests that the iPhone 18 will not actually come out, and the iPhone Air 2 will be the non-Pro iPhone on offer. I don't know how credible that rumor is, but it's literally what I predicted a year and a half ago, and I do think that is still where we're going.

I think the iPhone Air, as it exists today, is too big of a compromise to be the "standard" iPhone Apple, but I don't think it's that far off. Give it an ultrawide camera and improve the battery life a bit, and I think you have a very competent and cool mainstream iPhone. The rumors are that the iPhone Air 2 will get a second camera, and it will almost certainly have some level of improved battery life, so I guess I wouldn't totally dismiss that idea from happening in early 2027. The safe money is probably on 2028, but who knows? Frankly, I wouldn't be enormously surprised if they did it this spring.

We're already pretty confident that the only phones we'll see tomorrow are the Pros and the Ultra/Fold/Folio, with the normal iPhone 18 coming in the spring. As I wrote in my predictions post for the folding iPhone, I think this staggered release schedule is going to push more people to buy the Pro phone this year because they'll be used to upgrading in the fall, and there won't be a non-Pro upgrade option for them. They'll say, screw it, and level up.

That makes the iPhone 18 in the spring a pretty lackluster release. Yes, I know not everybody follows the Apple news like we do, but society in general has a feeling for when new iPhones come out, and it's the fall. That's when the excitement is, and you don't get that sort of excitement for the more budget phones coming out in the spring, so I do think it will be a more tepid release.

I feel like making that release the next iPhone Air, and having that just be the new normal iPhone, would be okay. It just feels like this is a year of change with the iPhone, in terms of what phones are in the lineup, when they come out, and how much they cost. Maybe that's just one of the new changes as well. Rip the band aid off.

I'm writing this post the day before the September iPhone event, although I didn't really need to hit that deadline since we're probably not going to know the validity of these predictions for many months still. But hey, what's the point in having a blog if you don't make some predictions that will surely end up being wrong down the road?