By Matt Birchler

How Accurate are Apple Rumors?

There's a constant stream of Apple rumors, and you never know exactly how accurate any of them are until months (or years) later, but we never go back to look up how accurate the rumors were, so I wanted to change that today.

I went through all the posts to MacRumors in January 2021 and picked out explicitly new rumor posts to see how many of them panned out in the 14 months since then. There are tons more posts on the site that month, but most of them are actually news, not rumors, who would have guessed? 🤷‍♂️

Oh, and I was going to do like 3 months, but this took long enough and I ran out of steam, so one month will have to do.

TLDR: in January 2021, MacRumors posted 22 times about new rumors, and 15 of those rumors were dead on, 3 of them were wrong, and 4 are still unknowns. You might be able to argue that some of the "unknown" posts are actually misses, but still, if January 2021 is at all representative, it appears Apple rumors may be accurate a heck of a lot more than they miss the mark. I'd love to see more info to increase the number of data points, but maybe I'll do that in a follow-up post.

Nailed It

  1. iPad Pro to Be First Apple Device Featuring Breakthrough New Display Technology
  2. Apple to End Dongle Headache With New MacBook Pro
  3. Apple Expected to Kill the MacBook Pro's Touch Bar This Year
  4. Bloomberg: Next MacBook Pro to Feature SD Card Reader
  5. iPhone 13 Rumored to Feature Smaller Notch, Pro Model Cameras to Use Larger Image Sensor
  6. Sensor-Shift Camera Stabilization Rumored to Expand to Entire iPhone 13 Lineup
  7. AirPods 3 to Gain AirPods Pro Features
  8. Apple Working on Two New Mac Pro Desktops, One of Which Will Be Reminiscent of Power Mac G4 Cube
  9. Apple Said to Be Working on Lower-Priced External Monitor to Succeed Thunderbolt Display
  10. Apple Developing Podcast Subscription Service to Better Compete With Spotify
  11. iPhone 13 Design to Address One Frequent Complaint
  12. Bloomberg: Next-Generation MacBook Pro to Offer Improved Displays, Faster Charging Over MagSafe
  13. Kuo: New MacBook Pro Models to Feature Flat-Edged Design, MagSafe, No Touch Bar and More Ports
  14. Allegedly Leaked 2021 iPad Pro CAD Images Suggest Few Design Changes
  15. Sixth-Generation iPad Mini to Feature 8.4-Inch Display With Slimmer Bezels, March Launch Expected

Missed the Mark

  1. Apple's iPhone 13 Could Feature Optical In-Display Fingerprint Sensor
  2. DigiTimes: Mini-LED MacBook Air to Launch in 2022
  3. Next Low-Cost iPad Said to Feature Thinner, Lighter Design

Unknown

  1. Bloomberg: Face ID for iMac Likely Pushed Back to Second Iteration of Upcoming Redesign
  2. Bloomberg: Apple Working on 'Thinner and Lighter' High-End MacBook Air With MagSafe, Could Launch in Second Half of 2021
  3. Bloomberg: Apple's First AR/VR Headset 'Pricey, Niche Precursor' to More Ambitious AR Glasses and Could Launch Next Year
  4. Apple Testing In-Display Fingerprint Sensor for iPhone 13, Foldable iPhone Also in the Works
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