Save this for later, but I would be absolutely shocked if we don’t see major changes to either the App Store or non-App Store install options by this time next year, I’ll be shocked.
Well, well, well, wasn't I surprised when this showed up in my Things tasks today? And I'm here to say…
I don't think there's any way I can spin this to say I was right, unfortunately. Since August 13, 2020 Apple has created and started up their small business program, which cuts the commissions Apple takes from eligible developers earning less than $1 million per year on the App Store, so that's something, but it's not the "major changes" I was talking about in that tweet.
That said, we have had several more anti-trust hearings in Congress and there are some bills being circulated that if turned into law, would fundamentally change things for Apple (and others), so this story is far from over. But per the rules I set for myself a year ago, I was indeed wrong.
I'm wrong today, and while I'm not about to make another "this time next year" guess, I do think there will be changes coming to the App Store in the coming years. Whether Apple makes those changes from a position of power or after being forced to do so is yet to be seen. Personally, I hope for the former because it will undoubtedly lead to the best situation for everyone involved.