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Grading My Apple Watch Predictions

Posted by Matt Birchler
β€” 2 min read

3 days ago I made a bunch of predictions about what we'd see from the new Apple Watches and today we saw everything. Let's see how I did:

Apple Watch SE

I made 9 total guesses, and I got it more right than I ever would have expected:

  • It will look like a Series 4/5 - nailed it
  • It will not have an always-on display - right on
  • It will start at $249 (I'd be shocked if they hold the $199 price point of the Series 3) - not quite, but only off by $30
  • It will not have a cellular option - incorrect
  • No 3D Touch - nailed it
  • No ECG - nailed it
  • It will have the same SOC as the Series 4 - technically not what they said, but considering the Series 4 and 5 shared the same SOC with minor differences for the always-on screen, which the SE doesn't have
  • Event recaps will say, "it's basically a renamed Series 4" - not quite, but largely since Apple said it had the Series 5 SOC
  • The think the "SE" name is more popular than ever, and Apple will want to frame this the same as the iPhone SE: a couple years' old design for a great price. - freaking nailed it before the big names were committed to it

Apple Watch Series 6

I took more gambles here

  • Same body shape as the Series 4/5 (not necessarily down to the millimeter, but to the naked eye) - nailed it
  • No 3D Touch - nailed it
  • Higher battery capacity, with Apple proudly commenting on how much better it is than last year's model - nope, was actually surprised by this
  • New screen technology that allows them to take the screen even closer to the edges than before - nope
  • An exclusive new watch face - nope
  • A new health sensor, likely a pulse oximeter - nailed it
  • A new material/finish for at least one of the models (maybe a shiny aluminum) - nope, in fact they removed the ceramic
  • A new color, likely a dark blue/green - nailed the blue, didn't expect the red
  • New watch band style, as well as new colors for the new season - 3 new styles!
  • Shipping this month (likely Sept. 25), pre-orders as soon as the event is over - nailed it
  • Same pricing as current models ($399 aluminum, $699 stainless) - nailed it


I'm actually shocked how close I was on the SE model, but I missed a bit on the Series 6. I am most proud of the guesses about the name of the SE and guessing the blue color for the Series 6. I just got a little greedy on the Series 6 getting a new design too soon in the cycle, and I'm genuinely surprised they didn't say anything about battery life improvements.

Anyway, this was fun and doesn't matter at all, so let's just enjoy the new products!